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“Clinton threatened national security and/or broke the law by maintaining a private email server” is better, but less self-evident. Some of the other parts of the five-pronged test would argue for the scandal being important. 3: “Does the scandal reify/reinforce/‘prove’ a core negative perception about the candidate? 2: “Does the scandal cut against a core element of the candidate’s brand?
That’s part of why I’ve been skeptical that the details of the scandal mattered all that much to voters. ” It makes it harder for Clinton to talk about her time as secretary of state in a positive light, which could otherwise be a real strength for her.
Could be something like the Jeremiah Wright thing, which seemed like a HUGE deal at the time but probably didn’t hurt Obama much in the end.
Once we get to the general-election phase of the campaign — if she makes it that far — we’ll see Clinton fighting back a little bit more.
It has certainly reminded the public of Clinton’s minuses faster than may have happened otherwise. Let’s say there’s some midlevel scandal that ordinarily wouldn’t have all that much resonance, but it’s enough to get five or six news cycles’ worth of negative headlines for Clinton.
In the current environment, that might be enough to trigger some panic among Democratic elites.
And the “drip, drip, drip” nature of the story has made that difficult.Though not as much as the Bush campaign is grappling with remaining out of the top three candidate tier …natesilver: Yeah, every single one of the Republican candidates would trade places with Clinton right now.At least in terms of their chances of winning their party’s nomination. And in this day and age of polarized politics, it would take something truly special for Clinton to be anything but a generic Democrat.hjenten-heynawl: Here’s my general thought: I think the email scandal has brought Clinton’s numbers down somewhat. faraic: Agreed for the most part — but not “generic.” Establishment. natesilver: Some of the risk to Clinton is if there IS another shoe to drop.
That might be a sixth prong we’ll need to add to the acid test we described earlier: Does the scandal continue to produce news, or is it one-hit-and-you’re-done, in a way that allows you to apologize and move on?